IPhone shipments may drop sharply in 1Q

The impact of China’s corona virus is expected to reduce iPhone production by 50% year-on-year.

Foxconn’s iPhone plants are located in Zhangzhou and Shenzhen, China, where 90% of the iPhone is manufactured.

Foxconn’s Zhangzhou’s workforce is about 160,000, but only about 10% have returned since the spring holiday, and the Shenzhen plant has not resumed production.

Foxonn plans to increase overall utilization by 80% in March. For the time being, iPhone production is expected to decline.

Foxconn pays 3000 yuan (about $ 400) per person if it returns before March 7th to increase plant utilization.

Estimated OLED shipments by 2020 will be 662 million units

According to UBI Research’s “2020 OLED Annual Report”, OLED sales in 2020 are expected to be $ 38.5 billion, an increase of 17.5% from the sales of $ 32.8 billion in 2019.

In terms of shipments in 2020, smartphone OLEDs are expected to reach 527 million units, TV OLED units at 4.9 million units, and watch OLED units at 118 million units. The estimated 2020 shipments of OLED for foldable phones are 6 million units.

The bad news for the OLED market for smartphones in 2020 is a decline in demand due to the ongoing Corona virus COVID-19. But in 2H, demand for flexible OLED will increase as Apple adopts more OLEDs. In particular, OCTA will be applied to the flexible OLED for iPhone, which will be produced in 2H, and the price of flexible OLED is expected to fall by 15-20%. The high price of US $ 1,000 or more could lead to a surge in replacement demand for iPhones, which could not be replaced, leading to increased flexible OLED shipments.

The product to be noted in the OLED TV market is the newly launched 48-inch product. 48-inch OLED TV, introduced as a gaming TV at CES2020, is expected to be in high demand in Japan. Sony’s OLED TV sales are expected to increase.

Chinese panel makers are very active in producing OLEDs for watches. The watch uses a small display of 1 to 1.5 inches, but the rigid OLED price is very expensive, at about $ 10 to 15 dollars. Chinese panel makers account for 43.3% of the 70 million OLED panel shipments in 2019. However, Korean companies that supply expensive flexible OLEDs to Samsung Electronics and Apple account for 65.3% of sales.

Foldable Phone Cover Window Material Competition To Heat up.

Ahead of Samsung Electronics’ unpacking event, interest in the foldable phone cover window material is hot. There was a concerned surprise that the Galaxy Fold, which was scheduled to be released in the first half of last year, was delayed for several months due to the tearing issue of the protective film. This year’s concern is whether Ultrathin Glass (UTG), which has emerged as a substitute for Colorless Polyimide (CPI), can be mass-produced without major issues.

Samsung Electronics will release the Galaxy Z flip known as “Clamshell” in the first half of this year and the Galaxy Fold 2 known as “Winner 2” in the second half of this year. The Clamshell is known to adopt UTG. This material is advantageous in terms of the hardness required for the use of the S Pen, the luxurious visibility and the soft touch unique to the glass. Moreover, the major reason for adopting UTG is known to remove wrinkle at the center of the screen, which has been pointed out as a disadvantage of CPI.

Prior to adopting UTG, Samsung Display invested $ 40.8M in Dowooinsys, UTG maker, and became the largest shareholder with 27.7% stake. The intention is to secure the stable supply of UTG and reduce its dependence on Japan for major materials.

<Ultrathin Glass (UTG) (Source : Dowooinsys homepage)>

However, there are also concerns about the adoption of UTG. Schott, AGC and Corning are also developing the product and they can produce substrates with a thickness of about 100 mm by the floating method or the slit nozzle method. To make it even thinner, Dowooinsys uses hot drawing or HF etching. The thickness of UTG to secure durability is believed to be 100 mm or more and with this thickness, the radius of curvature is about 2 ~ 3mm (~1mm for CPI), which reduces design freedom of the foldable phones. To improve durability, the UTG surface is coated with a polymer resin, which also prevents glass fragments from scattering when broken. The current problems of UTG are that mass production and yield are not yet secured due to the difficulty of the process, and that there exist traumatic worries on unexpected durability issues when released to the market.

Meanwhile, CPI material companies, which have been threatened by the news that UTG will be adopted for Clamshell, are also preparing to fight back. In order to remove the changeable window film (protective film) of PET material applied to Galaxy Fold, they are increasing the hardness of the hard coating on the CPI and developing a functional coating to give a glassy gloss. In particular, Dongwoo Fine-Chem, which did hard-coating on the CPI for Galaxy Fold, is known to simplify the process by developing hard coating materials including antifouling function. With all efforts added up , the CPI cover window structure is changed from the first generation foldable phone (PET + COA + CPI + COA) to the second generation foldable phone (CPI + COA), enabling the thickness to be reduced from about 200 mm to half, and the material cost and the process to be reduced.

<2019 Released Samsung Galaxy Fold Structure (Source: UBI Research Report)>

<Structure Prediction of the Samsung Galaxy Fold Follow-up Models: When Using UTG (Left) and CPI (Right) (Source: UBI Research)>

In addition to Sumitomo Chemical, which supplied to Galaxy Fold, Kolon Industries and SKC are also preparing for mass production of CPI. While UTG adoption seems to benefit to Clamshell with small screens, CPI is advantageous for larger screen sizes. UTG must make up for durability at the thickness retaining design freedom, and secure mass production system and price competitiveness through process improvement. CPI should strive to improve the hardness and appearance close to glass, and also increase price competitiveness. The material selection criteria will vary with the foldable phone models and customer response. Therefore the customer response for the Clamshell will be an important step in the future direction of the foldable phone cover window material. The market for the material is expected to grow rapidly, reaching $ 429.6M by 2023. The competition between UTG and CPI to take the market first has now begun.

<Market Forecast for Cover Window Materials (Source: UBI Research Report)>

JDI at Japan signed a $1 billion investment contract and focused on automobile LCDs and finger sensors rather than OLEDs.

Japan Display (JDI) announced on the Jan. 31st that they have signed a final contract to receive investment of up to 108 billion yen (980 million dollar) from Ichigo Asset Management. Therefore, the company is expected to release its debts and invest in new fields such as fingerprint sensors. However, it has yet to be determined whether JDI will invest in OLED for Smartphones.

 

It will take over preferred shares at 50.4 billion yen and secure 44 percent of voting rights to become the largest shareholder. The remaining 50.4 billion yen will take over preferred shares that do not have voting rights, but after one year, it will be possible to convert ordinary shares, which will result in more than a majority of Ichigo’s voting rights. Scott Caron, the CEO of Ichigo, will be Chairman of JDI after approval. JDI plans to hold an extraordinary shareholders’ meeting on March 25 to get the official approval and receive the funds on March 26 the same day.

 

JDI is supplying liquid crystal panels for the iPhone to Apple, but JDI needs a new revenue source as Apple is set to hire more OLED panels in the mid- and long-term. JDI plans to use funds from Ichiro to invest in facilities such as LCDs for automobile and fingerprint sensors. In an interview in September 19, JDI’s CEO Kikuoka said, “We will decide whether or not to mass-produce OLED panels for smartphones in 2020,” but this investment is not expected to be easy.

<JDI president Kikuoka (left) and Ichigo CEO Scott Caron (Nikkei.com)>