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유비리서치, 2017 OLED 광원 보고서 발간 : LG Display, 조명용 OLED 패널 본격 양산, 본격적인 시장 개화 기대

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■ LG Display 9월 말부터 5세대 조명용 OLED 패널 양산 시작

■ 2021년 OLED 조명 패널 시장 약 19억 달러, 2025년 약 58억 달러의 규모 형성 예상

 

 

LG Display가 9월 말부터 5세대 조명용 OLED 패널 양산을 시작할 예정으로 OLED 조명 시장이 본격적으로 개화 될 수 있을지 관심이 집중 되고 있다. LG Display에 따르면 월 생산 규모는 15K로서 추후에는 90K까지 설비를 증설 할 것으로 알려졌다.

 

유비리서치가 8일 발간한 ‘2017 OLED Lighting Annual Report’에 따르면, 전세계 OLED 조명 패널 시장은 2020년부터 크게 성장해 오는 2021년에는 약 19억 달러의 규모를 형성할 것으로 전망했다. 또한 2017년부터 2025년까지 연평균 85%의 성장률을 보이며 2025년에는 58억 달러의 규모를 형성할 것으로 예상했다.

 

OLED 조명은 얇고 가벼우며 유연한 패널 구현이 가능하기 때문에 설치 공간의 제약이 없고 디자인 자율성이 뛰어나다. 또한, 발열과 flicker 현상이 적고 편안한 분위기를 조성할 수 있기 때문에 일반 실내 조명 뿐만 아니라 차량용과 전시용, 의료용으로 OLED 조명이 채용되고 있다.

 

하지만 OLED 조명 시장은 모바일 기기와 TV에 적극 적용되고 있는 OLED 디스플레이 시장에 비해 더딘 성장세를 보였다. Osram은 주로 차량용 OLED 조명에 개발을 집중하고 있으며 Philips는 OLED 조명 사업부를 OLEDWorks에 매각했다. 또한, Sumitomo와 Konica Minolta 등의 일본 패널업체들도 산업용이나 의료용 등 다각도로 OLED 조명을 개발 중이지만 큰 성장세를 보이진 못했다.

 

이번 LG Display의 Gen5 OLED 양산라인 본격 가동으로 조명용 OLED panel 가격이 100 x 100 mm기준 US$ 10 이하로 떨어질 것으로 기대되고 있으며 이를 바탕으로 실내 조명 뿐만 아니라 차량용 조명, 전시용 조명 등 다양한 분야에 걸쳐 적용 될 것으로 보여 더딘 성장세를 보이는 OLED 조명 시장의 활력소가 될 수 있을지 귀추가 주목되고 있다.

 

유비리서치는 LG Display가 2017년 전세계 조명용 OLED 패널 시장의 약 70% 점유율을 차지할 것으로 예상했으며 2020년에도 약 50%의 점유율로 OLED 조명 패널 시장을 지속적으로 리딩할 것으로 전망했다.

 

한편, ‘2017 OLED Lighting Annual Report’는 차세대 조명시장 동향과 유망 application 분석, LG Display 투자에 따른 OLED lighting cost 분석, 조명용 OLED 시장 전망 등을 기술하여 OLED 조명 산업의 큰 흐름을 파악할 수 있도록 하였다. 특히, 조명용 OLED 시장 전망과 조명용 OLED 소재 시장 전망, 조명용 OLED 장비 시장 전망을 다양한 관점에서 분석하였기 때문에 관련 업체들의 OLED 조명 시장 파악에 도움이 될 것으로 기대 된다.

 

< 전체 OLED 조명 panel 매출액 전망>

UBI research publishes 2017 OLED lighting report : LG Display, ready to mass-produce OLED light panel, expecting OLED lighting market to grow fast

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■ LG Display starts mass production of 5G OLED panel for lighting from the end of September

■ OLED lighting panel market is projected to grow from US$ 1.9billion in 2021 to US$ 5.8billion by 2025

 

LG Display will start mass production of 5G OLED light panels from the end of September, therefore attention is focused on whether the OLED lighting market is growing rapidly. According to LG Display, monthly production capacity is 15K, and it is to be increased to 90K later.

 

According to the ‘2017 OLED Lighting Annual Report’ published by UBI Research on August 8, the global OLED lighting panel market is expected to grow to about US$ 1.9 billion by 2021. Furthermore, it is projected to have a CAGR of 85% for the period 2017-2025, and form a market of US$ 5.8 billion in 2025.

Because OLED lighting is thin, light and flexible, it does not limit the installation space and has excellent design autonomy. In addition, OLED lighting is used for automotive, exhibition, and medical as well as general indoor lighting because it can create a comfortable atmosphere with little heat and flicker.

 

However, the market for OLED lighting has been slower than that of OLED display, which is widely applied to mobile devices and TVs. Osram focuses primarily on automotive OLED lighting, and Philips sold its OLED lighting division to OLEDWorks. Also, Japanese panel makers such as Sumitomo Chemical and Konica Minolta have developed OLED lighting for industrial and medical applications. Nevertheless, it seems to take time for OLED lighting to become eventually a large market.

With LG Display’s mass production of Gen5 OLED line, the price of OLED light panel is estimated to drop below US $ 10 (100 x 100 mm). The significant price competiveness might enable OLED panels to be applied to various areas such as automobile and display lighting as well as indoor lighting. Owing to this expectation, attention is focused on whether the OLED lighting market, showing signs of slow growth, can be materialized.

UBI Research predicted that LG Display would account for about 70% of the world’s lighting OLED panel market in 2017, and will continue to lead the OLED lighting panel market with a 50% market share in 2020.

 

Meanwhile, ‘2017 OLED Lighting Annual Report’ describes trends of next-generation lighting market, promising applications, cost analysis upon the investment of LG Display and forecast of OLED lighting market. Since it analyses particularly OLED lighting market, materials market, and equipment market forecasts for OLED lighting from various perspectives, it is expected to help the related companies identify the OLED lighting market.

 

<Sales forecast for total OLED lighting panels>

 

Lighting Industry Market Control by Stable Major Companies, OLED Lighting Shakes It Up

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Key companies of lighting industry, such as Osram, Philips, Panasonic, and GE Lighting, occupies approximately 70% of total lighting market and maintains stable entry barrier. Most of the key companies are also actively carrying out OLED lighting development as next generation lighting. As they reveal new OLED lighting panels each year, it is estimated that these companies will play a major role in next generation lighting market.

However, once OLED lighting market is vitalized, the existing lighting companies’ stable market control is expected to be rattled.

OLED Lighting Annual Report, published by UBI Research, pointed out that major lighting companies have already invested in LED lighting in large scale, and estimated until the investment cost is returned new investment for OLED lighting will be difficult. To stimulate OLED lighting market the report suggested push market, a strategy being used in display market. According to the report, the production cost competitiveness can be achieved through aggressive investment by LG Chem. and new OLED lighting companies such as Lumiotec. The report also estimated once OLED lighting market is open through aggressive investment and push market strategy, the lighting market leadership will be transferred to new OLED lighting companies which invested in OLED lighting early from major companies which missed investment timing.

Total Lighting Market Structure Forecast

Total Lighting Market Structure Forecast

OLED lighting market is currently being formed through specialized uses such as for interior/outdoor design, shop, restaurant, medical, and cosmetic. Konica Minolta has already completed mass production line investment and the line has been in operation since the end of 2014. LG Chem. is also positively considering mass production line investment. When OLED lighting panel’s active mass production begins, the market is forecast to expand as specialized lighting and replacement lighting for incandescent and fluorescent lights. From 2020, when OLED lighting panel is estimated to achieve reasonable price as interior lighting through major panel companies’ active mass production, it is estimated it will grow by encroaching part of LED lighting market.

From 2017 OLED lighting panel market for interior lighting is forecast to grow rapidly at CAGR of approximately 90%, and record US$ 5,700 million revenue in 2025. Flexible OLED lighting panel is estimated to be used where normal lighting application is difficult and occupy approximately 27% of OLED interior lighting market in 2025.

Interior Lighting Market Forecast

Interior Lighting Market Forecast

 

견고한 조명산업 major 업체들의 시장 지배력, OLED lighting이 뒤흔든다.

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조명산업의 핵심 업체는 Osram과 Philips, Panasonic, GE Lighting 등으로 전체 조명시장의 약 70%를 차지하며 견고한 진입장벽을 구축하고 있다. 또한 핵심업체 중 대부분은 차세대 조명으로 OLED lighting 개발도 적극적으로 진행하며 매년 새로운 OLED lighting panel들을 공개하고 있어 차세대 조명시장에서도 핵심 역할을 할 것으로 대부분의 업계에서 예상하고 있다.

하지만 OLED lighting 시장이 활성화가 된다면 기존 핵심 조명업체들의 견고한 시장 지배력이 흔들릴 것으로 전망된다.

<표1. 전체 조명 시장 구도 전망>

유비산업리서치에서 발간한 “OLED Lighting Annual Report”에 따르면, major 조명업체들은 이미 LED lighting에 대한 대규모 투자가 이루어 졌기 때문에 투자비가 회수되기 전 까지는 OLED lighting에 대한 신규 투자를 할 여력이 없을 것으로 예상 했다. OLED lighting 시장이 활성화가 되기 위해서는 display 시장에서 push market으로 시장을 형성하듯이 LG Chem.과 Lumiotec등의 신규 OLED lighting 업체들이 공격적인 투자로 원가경쟁력을 확보하여 push market으로서 OLED lighting 시장을 형성해야 될 것으로 내다봤다. 또한 보고서에서는 공격적인 투자와 push market 전략으로 OLED lighting 시장 개화가 이루어 진다면 투자 시점을 놓친 major 업체들에서 투자를 먼저 진행한 신규 OLED lighting 업체들로의 조명시장 주도권이 넘어갈 것으로 전망하였다.

현재 OLED lighting 시장은 실내/실외 design과 shop, restaurant, medical, cosmetics등 특수 용도로서 시장을 형성해 나가고 있다. Konica Minolta에서는 이미 양산라인에 대한 투자가 완료되어 2014년 말부터 가동 중에 있으며 LG Chem.도 양산라인 투자를 긍정적으로 검토 중이다. OLED lighting panel의 본격적인 양산이 시작되면 특수조명 시장과 백열등과 형광등의 대체조명으로 시장을 확대할 것으로 예상되며, 주요 panel 업체들의 본격적인 양산을 통해 OLED lighting panel이 실내조명으로서 합리적인 가격을 확보하게 될 것으로 예상되는 시점인 2020년부터는 실내조명 시장에서 LED lighting 시장의 일부를 잠식하며 성장할 것으로 전망된다.

실내조명용 OLED lighting panel 시장은 2017년부터 연평균 성장률 약 90%로 급성장 할 것으로 전망되며 2025년에 US$ 5,700 million 규모가 될 것으로 예상된다. 또한 실내조명으로서 flexible OLED lighting panel은 일반 조명들이 적용되기 어려운 부분에 실내 interior용 조명으로 적용되어 2025년 OLED 실내조명 시장의 약 27%를 차지할 것으로 전망된다.

DDD

<표2. 실내조명 시장전망>

OLED lighting, replacing LED is in the not too distant future

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At SID2014, it was proved that OLED lighting has competitiveness in terms of efficiency and can compete with LED for the general lighting.

Konica Minolta developed 131lm/W OLED lighting panel last March. It also released an OLED lighting panel with efficacy of 139lm/W at the SID 2014 and drew more attention. Panasonic also presented on OLED, and drew more attention unveiling a prototype in Author interview.

Considering that the efficacy of currently commercialized LED lighting is about 80~130lm/W, it is analyzed that the fruitful result at the SID 2014 showed the potential of the OLED lighting becoming the general lighting instead of the LED lighting.

The most concerned issues of the OLED lighting are lifetime and cost. For the general lighting, 40,000hr, which the OLED panel makers target, is estimated enough considering replace period of the lighting, but the issue is the cost. Compared to the LED, the OLED lighting is expensive and currently forms a high-end lighting market. However, it is inevitable to down the cost for entering the general lighting market. Although LG Chem. announced a price reduction to 200$/Klm from 600$/Klm, investment of the OLED lighting makers in mass-production is vital to reform the general lighting market with the OLED lighting.

The OLED lighting panel has reached the level equal to the LED lighting. Now is the time that the OLED lighting panel companies make a turning point and can leap again by investing as they did with display.

did with display.

140611_Performance report of Konica Minolta’s 139lmW OLED lighting panel SID2014 <Performance report of Konica Minolta’s 139lm/W OLED lighting panel, SID2014>

140611_Panasonic’s 133 lmW OLED lighting panel SID2014

<Panasonic’s 133 lm/W OLED lighting panel, SID2014>

 

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