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UBI research just issued 2018 2Q AMOLED Display Market Tracks

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UBI Research recently published “2Q18 AMOLED Display Market Tracks”, which includes market updates of the second quarter of 2018. The report covers OLED display panel makers’ investment status, OLED display market forecasts from 2018 to 2022, OLED demand and supply trends, and competitiveness analysis of OLED Smartphone business for Samsung Display and other OLED display panel makers.

The market update, published with the Excel spreadsheet, describes the production line status and the added line status through future investments of the 15 OLED display panel makers worldwide. Also, it describes not only the major OLED application market such as smart phones and TVs, but also the market forecast by country.

The demand for OLED mobile sets (including smart phones and smart watches) in the first quarter of 2018 dropped to 98 million units from 130 million units in the fourth quarter of last year, due to the lower-than-expected performance of the premium smartphone market, where Samsung Electronics’ Galaxy S series and Apple’s iPhone occupy most of the market. OLED mobile set market is to recover gradually until 3Q, when Apple’s new smartphone model is launched, and by the end of 2018, the demand is expected to recover as to the similar level of the same period of last year. In addition, Samsung Display is anticipated to have a positive impact on the recovery of the Smartphone market in the second half of the year by securing competitiveness by lowering the sales price of rigid OLED panel for mobile phone to about US$ 25 to compete with LCD in China.

Consumers' smartphone replacement cycle is getting longer due to the reason that there is no revolutionary change in the new model compared to the past, and the Smartphone penetration in most of the countries except for India, South America and Africa is reaching the limit. Accordingly, the outlook for the downturn is mostly forecasted in the recent smartphone market. There is a growing interest in technology and design to apply a different form factor to revive the market. In this regard, Samsung Electronics' foldable OLED smartphone, which is scheduled to be released later this year or early next year, is expected to create a new momentum. Attention is focused on whether a folding- type flexible display (Dynamic Flexible Display) will be succeeded as a new type of smartphone from the existing edge-type flexible display (Static Flexible Display).

 

UBI Research predicts that the OLED Smartphone market will grow from 430 million units in 2018 to 900 million units in 2022, and the market for foldable OLED Smartphone is to be from about 1million units in 2019 to 18million units in 2022. This reflects the expansion of OLED panel production lines by panel makers such as LG Display and BOE, besides Samsung Display. It will be updated as new applications are developed in future and the Smartphone market moves forward.

In OLED panel market, OLED panel for Smartphone still occupies 91% of the whole market. Samsung Display has accounted for 90% of total OLED panel market performance and LG Display is followed with about 7.8% share.

OLED TVs, which are continuously increasing in demand worldwide compared to the Smartphone market, are expected to be in short supply this year. LG Display, the only OLED TV panel supplier, will continue to invest in production for the next five years. With the recent approval of new production facility for OLED TV panel in Guangzhou, the full-scale equipment move-in is expected this year. In Paju P10 investment plan, it was confirmed that LG Display will invest in OLED TV panel production line instead of LCD line investment which was examined before. Thus, the OLED TV market is projected to grow to US $ 5.6 billion.

AOI equipment market for OLED mobile devices is expected to reach US $ 23.3 billion by 2021

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AOI equipment used for small and medium-sized OLED inspection is non-contact inspection equipment that analyzes the presence of defects by irradiating the product with light and measuring the difference in the amount of the reflected light. The AOI equipment detects not only pattern defects by recognizing the difference through comparison of repeated patterns but also foreign objects on mask and substrate before and after LLO process.

 

As a result, AOI equipment is used in almost all OLED processes such as TFT pattern inspection, mask particle inspection, OLED pixel inspection, encapsulation inspection, and pre-and after LLO substrate inspection.

 

HB Technology, DIT, and LG PRI are major AOI equipment manufacturers. HB Technology, DIT and LG PRI produce almost all AOI equipment used for OLED process, whereas HIMS mainly produces AOI for mask foreign object inspection.

 

According to the ‘2017 Inspection and Measuring Equipment Report for OLED Mobile Device’ recently published by UBi Research, the market for inspection and measuring equipment in the entire OLED equipment market is estimated to be US $ 6.63 billion (about KRW 7.3 trillion) from 2017 to 2021. Among them, AOI equipment market is expected to be US $ 2.33 billion.

 

When it comes to processes, the AOI equipment market for TFT process is expected to create the biggest market of US $ 1.36 billion, and the AOI market for OLED pixel process, encapsulation and cell process will be US $ 430 million, US $ 390 million and US $ 160 million, respectively.

 

UBi’s Researcher, Yoon Dae Jeong said, “We can discover the added value of AOI equipment in that AOI equipment can improve yield by detecting and repairing defects during the OLED process and reduce the quality cost by preventing the further process of defective products.“ “With the technological development of AOI equipment, panel manufacturers are also actively introducing AOI equipment, and the AOI market is expected to grow even larger, as the inspection items are increasingly being strengthened.”

 

<2017 ~ 2021 OLED Mobile AOI Equipment Market Forecast>

OLED Mobile 기기용 AOI 장비 시장, 2021년까지 23.3억 달러 규모 형성 기대

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중소형 OLED 검사에 사용되는 AOI(automated optical inspection) 장비는 제품에 빛을 조사하여 그 반사되는 빛의 광량의 차이를 통해 결함의 유무를 분석하는 비접촉 검사장비다. AOI 장비는 반복되는 패턴의 비교를 통해 차이를 인지하여 패턴 불량을 검출 할 뿐만 아니라 mask 이물과 LLO(laser lift off) 공정 전후로 기판 이물의 검출도 가능하다.

 

이로 인해 AOI 장비는 TFT 패턴 검사와 mask 이물 검사, OLED 화소 검사, encapsulation 검사, LLO 전후 기판 검사 등 거의 모든 OLED 공정에 사용되고 있다.

 

AOI 장비를 생산하는 주요 업체는 HB Technology와 DIT, HIMS, LG PRI가 대표적이다. HB Technology와 DIT, LG PRI는 OLED 공정에 적용 되는 거의 모든 AOI 장비를 생산하고 있으며, HIMS는 mask 이물 검사용 AOI를 대표적으로 생산하고 있다.

 

유비산업리서치가 최근 발간한 ‘2017 Inspection and Measuring Equipment Report for OLED Mobile Device’에 따르면, OLED 전체 장비 시장 중 검사 · 측정장비 시장은 2017년부터 2021년까지 총 66.3억 달러(약 7.3조원) 규모가 될 것으로 전망하고 있다. 이 중 AOI 장비는 23.3억 달러를 형성할 것으로 전망했다.

 

공정별로 살펴보면 TFT에 사용되는 AOI 장비 시장은 13.6억 달러의 가장 큰 시장을 형성할 것으로 분석하였으며 OLED 화소 공정용 AOI 장비 시장 4.3억달러, encapsulation용 AOI 3.9억달러, cell 공정은 1.6억 달러의 시장을 형성할 것으로 분석했다.

 

유비리서치의 윤대정 연구원은 “OLED 공정 중 AOI 장비를 통해 불량을 검출하고 repair를 하면 수율을 향상시킬 수 있으며 결함 제품의 추가 공정을 방지하여 품질 비용을 절감할 수 있다는 측면에서 AOI 장비의 부가가치를 발견할 수 있다”며 “AOI 장비가 기술적으로도 발전하면서 panel 업체들도 AOI 장비를 적극적으로 도입하여 검사항목을 점점 강화되는 추세이기 때문에 AOI 시장은 더 큰 규모의 성장이 기대된다”라고 밝혔다.

<2017~2021년 OLED mobile 기기용 AOI 장비 시장 전망>

Inspection and measuring equipment market for OLED mobile device is expected to reach US$6.63 billion from 2017 to 2021

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As the panel problem of mobile devices has become a hassle for consumers, each panel maker is strengthening the relevant inspection and measurement activities.

 

Inspection and measurement can contribute not only to enhance the quality and performance of products but also to enhance the brand image through customer satisfaction. In addition, it is expected that productivity and yield can be improved by stabilizing the process since it is possible to check the normal state of products at each process in real time.

 

According to the ‘2017 Inspection and Measuring Equipment Report for OLED Mobile Device’ published by UBI Research, the inspection & measuring equipment market will reach a total of US$ 6.63 billion (about Korean Won 7.3 trillion) in the entire OLED equipment market from 2017 to 2021. In 2018, the investment for OLED inspection & measuring equipment is expected to be about US$ 1.45 billion (about KRW 1.6 trillion), with projected investment of US$ 1.6 billion (about KRW 1.8 trillion).

 

Choong Hoon Yi president of UBi Research announced that Samsung Display is currently in process of investment in A5 Gen6 flexible OLED line. LG Display is also reported to make a large-scale investment to raise OLED sales portion and Chinese OLED panel makers such as BOE and CSOT are making an active investment in OLED line. Hence, expectantly there will be constant market demand for inspection and measuring equipment.

 

In the report, the inspection and measuring equipment market from 2017 to 2021 is classified from various viewpoints. According to this report, the equipment used for substrate and TFT process will account for the biggest market share of 50.6% of the total inspection and measuring equipment market from 2017 to 2021. Market share of cell inspection equipment is projected as 29.7%, OLED pixel as 12.7%, and encapsulation as 7%, respectively.  In the equipment market classified by test items, the equipment used for pattern inspection will account for 33.1% of the total market. Market share of repair equipment is projected as 21.3%, and light on/off inspection equipment as 16.4%, respectively.

 

Lastly, AOI equipment and laser repair equipment, the important piece of inspection and measuring equipment, are expected to reach US$ 2.33 billion and US$ 1.41 billion, respectively, from 2017 to 2021.

<Market forecast of inspection & measuring equipment for OLED mobile device from 2017 to 2021>

2017년부터 2021년까지 OLED Mobile 기기용 검사 · 측정장비 시장 66.3억 달러 기대

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Mobile 기기의 panel 문제로 인해 소비자들의 불편이 가중되면서, 최근 각 panel 업체들은 검사 · 측정을 강화하고 있다.

 

검사 · 측정은 제품의 품질과 성능 향상뿐만 아니라 고객 만족을 통한 브랜드 이미지 제고에 기여할 수 있다. 또한, 각 공정에서 제품의 정상 유무를 실시간으로 점검할 수 있어 공정 안정화를 통한 생산성, 수율 향상이 가능할 것으로 예상된다.

 

유비산업리서치가 발간한 ‘2017 Inspection and Measuring Equipment Report for OLED Mobile Device’에 따르면, OLED 전체 장비 시장 중 검사 · 측정장비 시장은 2017년부터 2021년까지 총 66.3억 달러(약 7.3조원) 규모가 될 것으로 전망하고 있다. 2018년에는 14.5억 달러(약 1.6조원)의 OLED 검사 · 측정장비 투자가 진행 될 것으로 예상하고 있으며, 2019년에는 16억 달러(약 1.8조원)의 가장 많은 투자가 진행 될 것으로 전망하고 있다.

 

이충훈 대표이사는 Samsung Display는 A5 Gen6 flexible OLED line 투자를 진행중이며 LG Display는 OLED 매출 비중을 끌어올리기 위한 대규모 투자 내용 발표, BOE와 CSOT 등 중국의 OLED panel 업체들도 OLED 라인 투자를 적극적으로 진행하고 있기에 검사 · 측정장비는 지속적으로 수요가 있을 것으로 예상하고 있다.

 

본 보고서에서는 2017년부터 2021년까지의 검사 · 측정장비 시장을 다양한 관점에서 분류하여 전망하였다. 본 보고서에 따르면, 기판과 TFT에 사용되는 장비는 2017년부터 2021년까지 50.6%로 가장 큰 시장 점유율을 보이고 Cell은 29.7%, OLED 화소는 12.7%, encapsulation은 7% 순으로 전망하였다. 검사 · 측정 항목으로 분류한 장비 시장은 패턴검사가 33.1%, repair 21.3%, 점등 16.4% 순으로 나타났다.

 

마지막으로 검사 · 측정장비의 핵심 장비인 AOI 장비와 laser repair 장비는 2017년부터 2021년까지 각각 23.3억 달러와 14.1억 달러의 시장을 형성할 것으로 전망하고 있다.

<2017~2021년 OLED mobile 기기용 검사 · 측정장비 시장 전망>